ARTICLES

RESEARCH IN PROGRESS

1. Koehler, J. J. (2007). Misconceptions about statistics and statistical evidence

.  Submitted for publication in R. L. Wiener and B. H. Bornstein (Eds.).  Handbook of Trial Consulting: A Psychological Perspective. NY: Springer. COMPLETE PAPER

2. Koehler, J. J. (2007).  Communicating evidence in court.  Submitted for publication in A. Jamieson & A. Moenssens (Eds.).  Wiley Encyclopedia of Forensic Science.  Chichester, UK: Wiley. 

3. The Individualization Fallacy in Forensic Science (w/ M. Saks)
4. Why do people invest in IPOs? A test of information and utility-based explanations (w/ M. Mercer)
5. Selection effects in mutual fund advertisements (w/ M. Mercer)
6. The psychology of rates (w/ J. Gourville)
7. Downsizing Price Increases: Greater Sensitivity to Price Over Quantity in Consumer Markets. (w/ J. Gourville)
8. Betrayal aversion: The role of need for certainty (w/ A. Gershoff)
9. The loss of chance doctrine: Probabilistic causality and compensation for injury
10. Reverse hindsight

PUBLICATIONS (in press)

Koehler, J. J.  (in press).  Experts who don’t know they don’t know.  Interfaces.

PUBLICATIONS

Saks, M. J. & Koehler, J. J.  (2007).  Out to lunch: Saks & Koehler Reply to Rudin & Inman’s Commentary.  The California Association of Criminalists News, 1^st quarter 2007, 18-19.

Saks, M. J. & Koehler, J. J. (2006). Comments on Bruce Budowle's presentation at the Sackler Colloquium on Forensic Science. Digital Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (Sackler Colloquium). 

Koehler, J. J. (2006). Train our jurors. In G. Gigerenzer & C. Engel (Eds.). Heuristics  and the Law. Dahlem Workshop Report 94. Cambridge, MA. The MIT Press.

Piperides, C., Allen, R. J., Dhami, M. K., Flessner, A., Hastie, R., Koehler, J. J., Lempert, R., Schulz, J., & Wagner, G. (2006). What is the role of heuristics in litigation. In G. Gigerenzer & C. Engel (Eds.). Heuristics and the Law. Dahlem Workshop Report 94. Cambridge, MA. The MIT Press.

Koehler, J. J. & Thompson, W. C. (2006). Mock jurors' reactions to selective presentation of evidence from multiple-opportunity searches.  Law and Human Behavior. COMPLETE PAPER

Saks, M. J. & Koehler, J. J. (2006).  Questions About Forensic Science: Response.  Science, 311, 607-610.  COMPLETE PAPER  

Saks, M. J. & Koehler, J. J. (2005).  The Coming Paradigm Shift in Forensic Identification Science.  Science, 309, 892-895.  COMPLETE PAPER

Koehler, J. J. & Gershoff, A. D. (2005).  Betrayal Aversion is Reasonable.  Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 28, 556-7.  COMPLETE PAPER

Dutta, R. & Koehler, J. J. (2005).  Pay now or later?  The impact of temporal separation of payment and consumption on consumer product preferences.  In K. Tomak (Ed.).  Advances in the Economics of Information Systems.  Idea Group Publishing.

Koehler, J. J. & Macchi, L. (2004). Thinking About Low-Probability Events: An Exemplar Cuing Theory.  Psychological Science, 15, 540-546.  COMPLETE PAPER

Koehler, J. J. (2004). Which Chance Was Lost? The Psychology of Damage Awards Under the Loss of Chance Doctrine. In I. Brocas & J. D. Carrillo (Eds.). The Psychology of Economic Decisions.  Vol. 2: Reasons and Choices. Oxford: Oxford University Press.  COMPLETE PAPER

Kaye, D. H. & Koehler, J. J. (2003). The Misquantification of Probative Value.  Law and Human Behavior, 27, 645-659.   COMPLETE PAPER

Koehler, J. J. & Gershoff, A. D. (2003). Betrayal Aversion: When Agents of Protection Become Agents of Harm. Organizational Behavioral and Human Decision Processes, 90, 244-261.  COMPLETE PAPER

Prentice, R. A. & Koehler, J. J. (2003). A Normality Bias in Legal Decision Making. Cornell Law Review, 88, 583-650.  COMPLETE PAPER (large file, slow to download)

Koehler, J. J. & Conley, C. A. (2003). The Hot Hand Myth in Professional Basketball. Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 25, 253-259.  COMPLETE PAPER

Koehler, J. J. (2002). When Do Courts Think Base Rate Statistics Are Relevant? Jurimetrics Journal, 42, 373-402.  COMPLETE PAPER

Koehler, J. J. (2002). Assume a Can Opener: Richard Posner's Perspective on Election 2000. Law, Probability and Risk, 1, 75-82.  COMPLETE PAPER

Koehler, J. J. & Brint, A. (2001). Psychological Aspects of the Loss of Chance Doctrine. CEPR Conference on Psychology and Economics, ECARES, Brussels, Belgium.

Koehler, J. J. (2001). The Psychology of Numbers in the Courtroom: How to Make DNA Match Statistics Seem Impressive or Insufficient. Southern California Law Review, 74, 1275-1306.  COMPLETE PAPER

Koehler, J. J. (2001). When Are People Persuaded By DNA Match Statistics? Law and Human Behavior, 25, 493-513.  COMPLETE PAPER

Lyon, T. D. & Koehler, J. J. (1998). Where Researchers Fear to Tread: Interpretive Differences Among Testifying Experts in Child Sexual Abuse Cases. S. Ceci & H. Hembrooke (Eds.). What can (and should) an expert tell the court. Washington D.C.: American Psychological Association.  COMPLETE PAPER

Koehler, J. J. (1997). Why DNA Likelihood Ratios Should Account for Error (even when a National Research Council report says they should not). Jurimetrics Journal, 37, 425-437.  COMPLETE PAPER

Koehler, J. J. (1997). One in Millions, Billions and Trillions: Lessons from People v. Collins (1968) for People v. Simpson (1995). Journal of Legal Education, 47, 214-223.  COMPLETE PAPER

Koehler, J. J. (1997). A Farewell to Normative Null Hypothesis Testing in Base Rate Research. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 20, 780-783.

Lyon, T. D. & Koehler, J. J. (1996). The Relevance Ratio: Evaluating the Probative Value of Expert Testimony in Child Sexual Abuse Cases. Cornell Law Review, 82, 43-78.  COMPLETE PAPER

Koehler, J. J. (1996). On Conveying the Probative Value of DNA Evidence: Frequencies, Likelihood Ratios and Error Rates. University of Colorado Law Review, 67, 859-886.  COMPLETE PAPER

Koehler, J. J. (1996). The Base Rate Fallacy Reconsidered: Normative, Descriptive and Methodological Challenges. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 19, 1-53.   COMPLETE PAPER

Koehler, J. J. (1996). Issues For the Next Generation of Base Rate Research. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 19, 41-53.

Koehler, J. J., Chia, A. & Lindsey, J. S. (1995). The Random Match Probability (RMP) in DNA Evidence: Irrelevant and Prejudicial? Jurimetrics Journal, 35, 201-219.  COMPLETE PAPER

Koehler, J. J. (1995). Decision Theory For a General Audience. Contemporary Psychology, 40, 315-316.

Koehler, J. J. (1995). Discussion: Inference in Forensic Identification. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 158, 47.

Koehler, J. J., Gibbs, B. J. & Hogarth, R. M. (1994). Shattering the Illusion of Control: Multi-shot Versus Single-shot Gambles. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 7, 183-191.  COMPLETE PAPER

Koehler, J. J. (1994). Fallacy Under Fire--Round 2: A Response to Fletcher, Funder, and Macchi. Psycoloquy, 5(21) base-rate.13.koehler.

Koehler, J. J. (1994). Base Rates and the "Illusion Illusion": A Response to Ayton, Gregson, Hamm, Koonce, McCauley, McKenzie & Spellman. Psycoloquy. 5(9) base-rate.9.koehler.

Koehler, J. J. (1993). The Base Rate Fallacy Myth. Psycoloquy. 4(49) base-rate.1.koehler.

Koehler, J. J. (1993). The Normative Status of Base Rates at Trial. In Castellan, N. J. (Ed.). Individual and Group Decision Making, p. 137-149. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.

Koehler, J. J. (1993). The Influence of Prior Beliefs on Scientific Judgments of Evidence Quality. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 56, 28-55.  COMPLETE PAPER

Koehler, J. J. (1993). Error and Exaggeration in the Presentation of DNA Evidence. Jurimetrics Journal, 34, 21-39.  COMPLETE PAPER

Koehler, J. J. (1993). DNA Matches and Statistics: Important Questions, Surprising Answers. Judicature, 76, 222-229.  COMPLETE PAPER

Koehler, J. J. (1993). The Facts About DNA Typing: Professor Koehler Responds. Judicature, 77, 55-57.

Koehler, J. J. (1992). Probabilities in the Courtroom: An Evaluation of the Objections and Policies. In Kagehiro, D. K., & Laufer, W. S. (Eds.). Handbook of Psychology and Law. p. 167-184. NY:Springer-Verlag.

Kaye, D. H. & Koehler, J. J. (1991). Can Jurors Understand Probabilistic Evidence? Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 154, part 1, 75-81.   COMPLETE PAPER

Koehler, J. J. (1991). The Probity-policy Distinction in the Statistical Evidence Debate. Tulane Law Review, 66, 141-150.

Saks, M. J. & Koehler, J. J. (1991). What DNA "Fingerprinting" Can Teach the Law About the Rest of Forensic Science. Cardozo Law Review, 13, 361-372.

Koehler, J. J. & Shaviro, D. N. (1990). Veridical Verdicts: Increasing Verdict Accuracy Through the Use of Overtly Probabilistic Evidence and Methods. Cornell Law Review, 75, 247-279.

Koehler, J. J. (1990). Judgments of Evidence Quality Among Scientists as a Function of Prior Beliefs and Commitments. Dissertation Abstracts International, 50, 3194.