Koehler, J. J. (1996). Issues for the next generation of base rate research. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 19, 41-53.

ABSTRACT

In this 1st reply to 30 commentators on my 1996 Behavioral and Brain Sciences article on base rates, I note that commentators agree that simple conclusions about a general base rate fallacy are not appropriate. It is more constructive to identify conditions under which base rates are given more and less attention. Commentators also agree that improving the ecological validity of the research is desirable, although this is less important to those interested exclusively in psychological process. The philosopher- and ecologist-commentators offer a kinder perspective on base rate reasoning than the psychologists. My own perspective is that the interesting questions (both psychological and normative/prescriptive) are best answered through empirical studies that use real world performance standards.