Koehler, J. J. (1997). A farewell to normative null hypothesis testing in base rate research. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 20, 780-783.

ABSTRACT

In this 2nd reply to the commentators on my 1996 Behavioral and Brain Sciences article on base rates, I agree with Gibbs that the message of the base rate literature reads differently depending on which null hypothesis is used to frame the issue. But I argue that the normative null hypothesis, H0: "People use base rates in a Bayesian manner" is no longer appropriate. Macchi's arguments about textual ambiguities in traditional base rate problems suggest that empirical testing is needed to tease apart the effects of problem clarification and problem framing. Fletcher and Snow are skeptical about the value of Bayesian methods in real world judgment tasks. Their criticisms challenge scientists to ask important questions about the practical value of base rates and Bayes' Theorem.