Kaye, D. H. & Koehler, J. J. (2003). The Misquantification of Probative Value. Law and Human Behavior, 27, 645-659.

ABSTRACT

D. Davis and W. C. Follette (2002) purport to show that when “the base rate” for a crime is low, the probative value of “characteristics known to be strongly associated with the crime . . . will be virtually nil.”  Their analysis rests on the choice of an arbitrary and inapposite measure of the probative value of evidence.  When a more suitable metric is used (e.g., a likelihood ratio), it becomes clear that evidence they would dismiss as devoid of probative value is relevant and diagnostic.

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