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Friday, January 24, 2003

The Thinking Fan: Raiders ... and why you can take it to the bank

By LEONARD KOPPETT
SPECIAL TO THE POST-INTELLIGENCER

Every year at this time, I offer my unique, completely objective, method of predicting the winner of the Super Bowl. I consider this a scientific exercise, devoid of subjective judgments or elaborate research. It is based on existing records and free of interest or preference for either team.

I make it available to those foolhardy souls who decide to make a financial investment in the outcome, despite the recent evidence that investing can be hazardous. However, having seen how wrong stock analysts, advisors, experts and academic economists have been in recent years using their sophisticated and presumably erudite inside knowledge, my mechanical approach can be -- I guarantee it -- every bit as unreliable as theirs.

My nine items of comparison draw on geography, population, the alphabet and age (in years), all indisputably unambiguous and measurable data unadulterated by emotion, hunch or secret information.

Ready?

The contestants are the Oakland Raiders and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

  • Compare the population of their metropolitan market areas (according to the U.S. census). The larger has won 23, lost 13. Oakland, as part of the San Francisco Bay Area, is larger. Invest in Oakland.

  • Arrange city names alphabetically and compare the first letters. The one whose letter comes earlier in the alphabet has won 21, lost 15. Oakland comes before Tampa. Invest in Oakland.

  • Do the same with the team nicknames. The names that start later in the alphabet have won 21, lost 15. "Raiders" comes later than "Buccaneers." Invest in Oakland.

  • Compare nickname identities. Humans have a 12-7 lead over animals, but this is the 16th time both represent humans. So we must resort to tiebreakers. Set it aside for now, because it's complicated. We'll come back to it before we're through.

  • The team whose home city is farther south has won 20, lost 16. Invest in Tampa Bay.

  • The team whose home city is farther west has won 20, lost 16. Invest in Oakland.

  • Compare the ages of the starting quarterbacks. The older has won 21, lost 15. Rich Gannon of the Raiders is 37, Brad Johnson of the Bucs is 34. Invest in Oakland.

  • Compare conference affiliations. The AFC won 10 of the first 14 after the 1970 merger, then the NFC won 13 in a row. Since then, the AFC has won four of the past five. The first four played, while the NFL and AFL were still distinct, were split 2-2. Add it up and it's 18-18. No help.

  • Compare the ages of the franchises. The older has won 24, lost 12. The Raiders started in 1960, in the AFL. Tampa Bay entered the NFL as an expansion team in 1976. Invest in Oakland.

    So far, we have six indicators that say Oakland, one that says Tampa Bay, one indeterminate (the 18-18 conference affiliations) and one that we still have to deal with -- the different kinds of humans. No matter how it comes out, Oakland will be ahead, 6-2 or 7-1.

    For the record, here's how humans vs. humans breaks down.

    Some arbitrary classifications are necessary for the sake of simplicity. The Jets are considered humans, as in the Jets and Sharks of "West Side Story;" the Chargers, as in credit-card users; and the Bills are named for Buffalo Bill, notably a human. If the Jets, Chargers and Bills are considered inanimate objects, they mess up my system.

    "Animals" includes fish and birds. They've met only once, when the Broncos beat the Falcons four years ago.

    Humans can be classified by occupation (Steelers, Cowboys, 49ers, Packers) and by some sort of "warrior" class. Those include Raiders, Vikings, Redskins and Chiefs (the last two referring to Native American warriors). Others simply are miscellaneous.

    The Raiders and Buccaneers (pirates) are "warriors" facing each other for only the fourth time. The Chiefs beat the Vikings (IV), the Raiders beat the Vikings (XI) and the Raiders beat the Redskins (XVIII). So score this one for Oakland, making the final tally 7-1.

    Last year it was 6-3 for the Rams, who lost to the Patriots.

    The year before is was 5-4 for the Giants, who lost to the Ravens.

    You have been warned.

    Good luck.

    Hall of Fame writer Leonard Koppett writes a weekly column for the P-I. Contact him at sports@seattlepi.com



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