Paul C. Tetlock
Links

Research Links:

• WSJ.com (the online edition of the Wall Street Journal)
  
  In my paper entitled “Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market”, I attempt to measure directly the nature and extent to which the media interacts with the stock market. I construct several quantitative measures of the media’s stock market coverage based on the content of the daily “Abreast of the Market” column in the Wall Street Journal. I conclude that either the media reports investor sentiment before this sentiment is fully incorporated into market prices or the media directly influences investors’ attitudes toward securities.



• Economist.com (the Economist magazine)
  
  The “Economics Focus” column discusses my media sentiment paper in this article.
  
  
• TradeSports.com
  
  TradeSports is an online exchange that facilitates trading in event futures contracts. Some of the more intriguing contracts include:
  
  • Osama bin Laden to be captured/neutralized by December 31, 2006
  • Fed Funds rate at or above 5.50% on December 31, 2006
  In this research paper, I argue that most securities markets on TradeSports--except those with persistently high liquidity--are quite efficient.

• AEI-Brookings Joint Center
  
  The Joint Center is a non-partisan policy thinktank that studies a wide range of regulatory issues, such as “Should You Be Allowed To Use Your Cellular Phone While Driving?”. Robert Hahn (the Director of the Center), Jason Burnett and I argue that regulating cellular telephone use in vehicles is not justified on cost-benefit grounds. Moreover, there are other tasks that divert driver attention that pose greater safety risks and could be regulated at a lesser cost.
  


• Robert Shiller’s Home Page
  
  Robert Shiller has advocated the creation of new set of macro markets, in which society’s largest risks would be traded. Although there are markets for corporate dividends, there are no markets for the most important assets in our economy, such as real estate and human capital. Without these markets, investors cannot share risks and achieve the enormous benefits of diversification. Shiller’s web page contains a wealth of information about the theory behind these markets and current efforts to implement them.

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