Students Learn to Manage Future’s Uncertainties
In Class: Ruefli encourages creative thinking in “Managing the future”
by Andrea Ferdinand
The future is uncertain.
For instance, many possibilities for alternative energy to power cars will be available in the near—and not-so-near—future. Vehicles may run on ethanol, lithium ion batteries that last up to 250 miles, hydrogen fuel cells, solar panels or even compressed air. While the options may seem endless, nothing is certain. And what’s more uncertain is how companies and industries will adapt to the challenges presented by these new energy sources.
To tackle the challenges raised by future uncertainties, IROM Professor Tim Ruefli designed a unique class entitled “Managing the Future.” Every company faces risk, Ruefli notes, and many McCombs courses are designed to teach students how to assess and manage risk. But few courses are designed to equip students with the knowledge to deal with entirely new and uncertain situations.
“I don’t want students to learn how to predict the future,” Ruefli explains. “But I want them to learn to manage it by thinking about all the possible alternatives that could happen and how to prepare for those alternatives.”
Alternative energy sources, for example, are gaining more attention as people grow more concerned with this country’s dependence on oil. But how will fossil fuels, wind turbines, geothermal and hydroelectric energy affect the energy industry 15 years from now? With no definite answer, Ruefli’s students have learned that it’s possible to develop viable scenarios to make this question a little more manageable.
“When dealing with uncertainty, it is necessary to ask, ‘What are the alternative futures?’” Ruefli says. “The alternative futures must be plausible, consistent and must not overlap.”
Weighing the Options
Student groups in the class each selected an industry—such as virtual reality, medical imaging or alternative energy for cars—and identified major trends that will likely affect that industry in the future. Then they drilled down a bit, narrowing their focus to specific firms. The students developed possible future scenarios for the companies and analyzed their technologies and competitors.
Management information systems senior Steven Eastland and his group considered how global businesses might respond within the next 10 years to increasing concerns about environmental protection. After identifying the major stakeholders for this globally sustainable scenario—multinational companies, the general public, the environment and new entrants to the industry—Eastland and his group predicted major trends would include more opportunities for multinational companies to “go green,” heightened public awareness of environmental issues and more companies beginning to take notice of the public’s concern.
The group then developed four possible industry scenarios. One described the effects of escalating tensions in the Middle East. Rather than jumping on the green bandwagon and making business practices more environmentally friendly in this hypothetical reality, oil companies found themselves more worried about fuel supplies. The result of this shift in emphasis, combined with the decline in outsourcing due to increased costs and the increasing pollution created by the rapidly increasing world population, was massive local environmental damage in industrialized countries.
Another scenario foresaw the possibility of crude oil prices rising to $200 a barrel. If this became a reality, the students posited, renewable energy would become economically feasible. What’s more, large multinational companies like Wal-Mart would have to receive government subsidies on U.S.-produced energy, which would lead to an increased number of green-based local suppliers with tight supply chains.
“The biggest challenge I faced was learning how to be flexible in my understanding,” Eastland says. “I am naturally creative, but this class teaches you how to be practically creative—a skill that most people have to acquire.”
Seeing Beyond the Horizon
Ruefli says the skills students learn in his class are different than skills taught in most undergraduate courses. “It’s not a ‘hard’ skills set like knowledge of Excel or financial models,” Ruefli notes. “They learn a way to think about what’s coming and bring it down to a personal level. This class is not just about preparing them for a certain type of future, it’s about figuring out what the alternatives might be in any situation.”
For example, Ruefli hopes that after completing this course his students won’t simply go into a meeting and think about just one solution. Instead, they will think about all the possible alternatives and what impact each alternative has on them or their companies.
“The most valuable experience I will take away from this course is learning how to think,” Eastland says. “Many classes teach you stylized information that is historically focused and not applicable in the real world. In an ever-changing economy, you must be able to see over the horizon to position yourself effectively.”
In addition to creating a hands-on environment, Ruefli arranges guest speakers with vast experiences in managing the uncertainties in the constantly changing global environment. A few speakers included Paul Schumann, president of the Central Texas chapter of the World Future Society and co-founder of Glocal Vantage, Inc.; Derek Woodgate, president of The Futures Lab; and Bob Johansen, senior fellow at the Institute for the Future.
Being Your Own Teacher
By bringing in speakers, organizing the class in a seminar format and allowing his students to develop their own projects, Ruefli hopes to provide students with enough guidance to gain an understanding for the challenges of managing the future, but also to give them enough freedom to allow them to develop the skills on their own.
“I basically teach this course as a coach,” Ruefli says. “What I really want to do is have the students educate each other.”
Marketing junior Arlene Baeza says this process has worked well for her and her classmates. “We take the project into our own hands, do the research, figure out the scenarios and come up with our own endings,” she says. “There are really no right or wrong answers—there are certainties and uncertainties, and we must use those to figure out where we will be 10 to 15 years from now.”
Ruefli also wanted the course environment to mirror that of a real work environment, so he opened the course to all business majors.
“The most valuable experience for me was working with different kinds of people with different backgrounds,” Baeza recalls. “Each person had something unique to contribute, and it made me look at the situation from a totally different perspective.”
While many students have expressed interest in a career in this field, Ruefli points out that the job opportunities are slim. “It’s possible to make a living doing work like this—it’s not very common because businesses do not have a lot of room for such positions— but it is possible.”
Though future-oriented jobs may be difficult to find, Ruefli’s students have learned the skills necessary to quickly adapt to uncertainties in any situation. “They have learned that they can pick any area and—given some structure—they can become experts in that area in a short amount of time,” Ruefli says.
For instance, many possibilities for alternative energy to power cars will be available in the near—and not-so-near—future. Vehicles may run on ethanol, lithium ion batteries that last up to 250 miles, hydrogen fuel cells, solar panels or even compressed air. While the options may seem endless, nothing is certain. And what’s more uncertain is how companies and industries will adapt to the challenges presented by these new energy sources.
To tackle the challenges raised by future uncertainties, IROM Professor Tim Ruefli designed a unique class entitled “Managing the Future.” Every company faces risk, Ruefli notes, and many McCombs courses are designed to teach students how to assess and manage risk. But few courses are designed to equip students with the knowledge to deal with entirely new and uncertain situations.
“I don’t want students to learn how to predict the future,” Ruefli explains. “But I want them to learn to manage it by thinking about all the possible alternatives that could happen and how to prepare for those alternatives.”
Alternative energy sources, for example, are gaining more attention as people grow more concerned with this country’s dependence on oil. But how will fossil fuels, wind turbines, geothermal and hydroelectric energy affect the energy industry 15 years from now? With no definite answer, Ruefli’s students have learned that it’s possible to develop viable scenarios to make this question a little more manageable.
“When dealing with uncertainty, it is necessary to ask, ‘What are the alternative futures?’” Ruefli says. “The alternative futures must be plausible, consistent and must not overlap.”
Weighing the Options
Student groups in the class each selected an industry—such as virtual reality, medical imaging or alternative energy for cars—and identified major trends that will likely affect that industry in the future. Then they drilled down a bit, narrowing their focus to specific firms. The students developed possible future scenarios for the companies and analyzed their technologies and competitors.
Management information systems senior Steven Eastland and his group considered how global businesses might respond within the next 10 years to increasing concerns about environmental protection. After identifying the major stakeholders for this globally sustainable scenario—multinational companies, the general public, the environment and new entrants to the industry—Eastland and his group predicted major trends would include more opportunities for multinational companies to “go green,” heightened public awareness of environmental issues and more companies beginning to take notice of the public’s concern.
The group then developed four possible industry scenarios. One described the effects of escalating tensions in the Middle East. Rather than jumping on the green bandwagon and making business practices more environmentally friendly in this hypothetical reality, oil companies found themselves more worried about fuel supplies. The result of this shift in emphasis, combined with the decline in outsourcing due to increased costs and the increasing pollution created by the rapidly increasing world population, was massive local environmental damage in industrialized countries.
Another scenario foresaw the possibility of crude oil prices rising to $200 a barrel. If this became a reality, the students posited, renewable energy would become economically feasible. What’s more, large multinational companies like Wal-Mart would have to receive government subsidies on U.S.-produced energy, which would lead to an increased number of green-based local suppliers with tight supply chains.
“The biggest challenge I faced was learning how to be flexible in my understanding,” Eastland says. “I am naturally creative, but this class teaches you how to be practically creative—a skill that most people have to acquire.”
Seeing Beyond the Horizon
Ruefli says the skills students learn in his class are different than skills taught in most undergraduate courses. “It’s not a ‘hard’ skills set like knowledge of Excel or financial models,” Ruefli notes. “They learn a way to think about what’s coming and bring it down to a personal level. This class is not just about preparing them for a certain type of future, it’s about figuring out what the alternatives might be in any situation.”
For example, Ruefli hopes that after completing this course his students won’t simply go into a meeting and think about just one solution. Instead, they will think about all the possible alternatives and what impact each alternative has on them or their companies.
“The most valuable experience I will take away from this course is learning how to think,” Eastland says. “Many classes teach you stylized information that is historically focused and not applicable in the real world. In an ever-changing economy, you must be able to see over the horizon to position yourself effectively.”
In addition to creating a hands-on environment, Ruefli arranges guest speakers with vast experiences in managing the uncertainties in the constantly changing global environment. A few speakers included Paul Schumann, president of the Central Texas chapter of the World Future Society and co-founder of Glocal Vantage, Inc.; Derek Woodgate, president of The Futures Lab; and Bob Johansen, senior fellow at the Institute for the Future.
Being Your Own Teacher
By bringing in speakers, organizing the class in a seminar format and allowing his students to develop their own projects, Ruefli hopes to provide students with enough guidance to gain an understanding for the challenges of managing the future, but also to give them enough freedom to allow them to develop the skills on their own.
“I basically teach this course as a coach,” Ruefli says. “What I really want to do is have the students educate each other.”
Marketing junior Arlene Baeza says this process has worked well for her and her classmates. “We take the project into our own hands, do the research, figure out the scenarios and come up with our own endings,” she says. “There are really no right or wrong answers—there are certainties and uncertainties, and we must use those to figure out where we will be 10 to 15 years from now.”
Ruefli also wanted the course environment to mirror that of a real work environment, so he opened the course to all business majors.
“The most valuable experience for me was working with different kinds of people with different backgrounds,” Baeza recalls. “Each person had something unique to contribute, and it made me look at the situation from a totally different perspective.”
While many students have expressed interest in a career in this field, Ruefli points out that the job opportunities are slim. “It’s possible to make a living doing work like this—it’s not very common because businesses do not have a lot of room for such positions— but it is possible.”
Though future-oriented jobs may be difficult to find, Ruefli’s students have learned the skills necessary to quickly adapt to uncertainties in any situation. “They have learned that they can pick any area and—given some structure—they can become experts in that area in a short amount of time,” Ruefli says.
