July 11, 2005
Changes in Crime Analysis May Open New Markets, Says Koehler

While popular TV shows like CSI: Crime Scene Investigation are drawing public attention to forensic testing methods including fingerprinting, fiber comparisons and ballistics, a new paper by McCombs professor Jay Koehler and Michael Saks of Arizona State University argues that these traditional models may not live up to the hype.

In their controversial paper, “The Coming Paradigm Shift in Forensic Identification Science,” the authors claim that a variety of converging legal and scientific forces, including DNA typing, are driving traditional forensics toward fundamental change. Soon to be published in Science, the highly-anticipated article suggests that many traditional forensic methods lack a solid scientific foundation. The article also suggests that scientists need to design new experiments to identify the accuracy of forensic science claims.

Koehler, a professor in the department of information, risk and operations management at the McCombs School of Business, foresees a slew of financial opportunities arising from this shift in crime analysis. Police departments might face increased competition from private businesses, which may be able to offer more accurate scientific methods and more qualified personnel to undertake forensic activities than state agencies currently handle. For another example, the process of testing these new companies for proficiency may become a market in itself.

Koehler’s research and teaching interests include behavioral decision theory, the psychology of investing, and statistical reasoning in the law.

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