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Scenarios and Forecasting:

Planning for Uncertainty

  • Leverage Scenarios to Foster Insight

    Utilizing the integrated approach taught in this program, prepare to create value for your organization by broadening strategic thinking about the future and creating robust strategies. Learn to select appropriate sources and methodology, design, and develop effective forecasts that improve your decisions. Build on data and analytics, and learn to incorporate better judgment systematically.

Benefits

Selecting the appropriate sources and methodology for forecasts is paramount to the success of your strategy. Systematic scenario planning can be an effective tool to improve the reliability of forecasts.

 

We define a “scenario” as a coherent sequence of events and decisions that create a vivid, compelling vision of what the future could look like. We define “scenario planning” as harnessing the power of scenarios to make better strategic choices. With the right tools you can design and develop effective forecasts that dramatically improve long-term decisions.

 

Making such decisions requires forward-looking information that is relevant and reliable. Only looking backward or ignoring uncertainty about the future will lead to flawed decisions. Effective forecasts will include both future possibilities (scenarios) and probabilities.

 

  • Improve strategic decision-making with enhanced forecasting methods and by leveraging scenarios to foster insight
  • Examine and employ a four-step process of developing and using scenarios within a strategic decision-making process
  • Discuss best practices for developing forecasting models, assessing quantitative information, and updating assessments with new information
  • Identify, graphically, the primary factors to be considered in a forecasting model and the relationships among them utilizing a relevance diagram
  • Parameterize the model by choosing formulas to represent projections in the model
  • Recognize the ambiguity and confusion created when people use words such as “likely,” “good possibility,” etc. in forecasts, rather than explicit probabilities
  • Learn to assess event probabilities by studying a company that has become extremely skilled at this process
  • Apply a rigorous quantitative approach to situations with very low probabilities and high consequences

Enrollment Options

  • Individual Enrollment

    Enroll in this course as an individual for $2,950.
  • Group and Custom Enrollment

    Enroll as a team, or customize this program for your organization.

Upcoming Sessions

Class Details

Strategic Decision and Risk Management

Date

11/14/22 - 11/15/22

2-Days

Instructors

Eric Bickel

Bruce Judd

Location

UT Campus

Scenarios and Forecasting: Planning for Uncertainty

Strategic Decision and Risk Management

Date

11/14/22 - 11/15/22

2-Days

Instructors

Eric Bickel

Bruce Judd

Location

UT Campus

Class

Concentration

Date

Location

Instructors

Scenarios and Forecasting: Planning for Uncertainty

Strategic Decision and Risk Management

11/14/22 - 11/15/22

2-Days

UT Campus

Eric Bickel

Bruce Judd

A Great Foundation
This course is terrific. Informative, well-organized; will provide a great foundation for helping teams make good decisions.
Tall tower building at the Univeristy of Texas with a blue sky and clouds.

Who Should Attend?

The skills developed in all our Strategic Decision Making courses are applicable for a variety of professionals across verticals. Whether you work for a global corporation or a small business, we can help.

 

Specifically, these courses are tailor for those who:

 

  • Want to make better decisions, especially when outcomes are uncertain and when risks include financial and non-financial impacts.
  • Want to develop better processes for decision making within their team or across their organization.

 

There are no formal prerequisites for these classes but we recommend that those interested in the topic should start with our Decision Quality class to learn the fundamentals.

Instructors

  • Eric Bickel
    Eric Bickel Headshot
    Eric Bickel

    Professor and Director, Graduate Program in Operations Research & Industrial Engineering

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  • Bruce Judd
    Bruce Judd Headshot
    Bruce Judd

    Partner and Managing Director, Executive Education Practice, Strategic Decisions Group

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Demonstrate Your Expertise with a Certificate

  • Reimbursement Options

    Learn more about course credits and options for course reimbursement. Get tips on the best way to approach your manager and download a customizable template to facilitate making the ask.
  • Course Location

    In person courses take place at the AT&T Executive Education and Conference Center and adjoining Rowling Hall on the UT campus in Austin. These world-class facilities provide a comfortable and convenient learning environment, with direct access to the 40 acres of campus and within walking distance of downtown Austin. Live online and on-demand course options are available for many courses.

In Partnership with Strategic Decisions Group

The Strategic Decision and Risk Management Certificate courses offered by Texas Executive Education combine The University of Texas at Austin’s academic and research depth with the decision and risk management expertise and track record of Strategic Decisions Group (SDG).

 

Strategic Decisions Group (SDG) is a global consulting firm with expertise in strategic decision making, risk management and shareholder value creation. SDG’s collaborative approach helps clients find innovative strategies for today while helping them build decision competency for the future.

 

Other Strategic Decision and Risk Management Courses

Decision and Risk Analysis

Explore the foundations of decision quality and how to use a rigorous analytic framework to make better decisions in your personal and professional life.

Learn More

Decision Quality: Make the Right Choice Every Time

Learn how to frame strategic choices, generate alternatives, develop credible forecasts, quantify uncertainty and judge the quality of a decision at the time it is made.

Learn More

Human Biases in Decision Making: Avoiding the Traps

Understand the ways in which your mind, personality, and social structures can degrade your decision-making.

Learn More

Leading Strategic Decision Making

Achieve success by effectively diagnosing a decision situation, designing a clear approach, facilitating communication, and presenting compelling rationale to key stakeholders.

Learn More

Modeling and Analytics for Strategic Insight

Create models that answer executives' questions, produce compelling analyses, and ultimately gain commitment.

Learn More

Scenarios and Forecasting: Planning for Uncertainty

Improve strategic decision-making with enhanced forecasting methods and by leveraging scenarios to foster insight.

Learn More

Resources

  • Hand holding up magnifying glass with trees in the background.

    Decision Quality: Strategic Decision Making Through Framing & Alternatives

    Framing and finding alternatives are key links in the decision quality chain; necessary for determining if a decision is good or not.
  • Drawing of a head with post-its inside it.

    The Danger of Mental Shortcuts: How Biases Can Sabotage Your Best Decisions

    The human intellect is extremely powerful and capable. But our minds have evolved with biases that work against good judgment and decision making.
  • A person sitting by a window looking at a computer screen.

    Break Free From These 3 Workplace Biases

    Although implicit biases are not something we often think about, they do shape every decision we make. Discover how to escape 3 types of biases that affect workplace decision making.

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